US-India trade talks aim for tariffs below 20% by fall 2025

Trade negotiations between the United States and India have progressed toward a provisional agreement that could reduce import tariffs to below 20%, as announced on July 11, 2025, in Washington. Led by U.S. Assistant Trade Representative Brendan Lynch and Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, the talks, which began in New Delhi from March 26 to 29, aim to finalize a bilateral deal by the fall of 2025. India, the U.S.’s top trading partner with $129 billion in bilateral trade in 2024, has not received a formal tariff demand letter, unlike Vietnam and the Philippines. The agreement, covering 19 sectors including agriculture and e-commerce, positions India ahead of other Asian nations amid tensions over genetically modified crops and pharmaceutical regulations. The move aligns with Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy, which has pressured trading partners since April.

India aims for terms more favorable than Vietnam’s 20% tariff agreement.

An Indian delegation will visit Washington soon to further the negotiations.

• Proposed tariff: Below 20%, down from an initial 26%.
• Bilateral trade: $129 billion in 2024, with India’s surplus at $45.7 billion.
• Timeline: Provisional deal targeted for fall 2025.
• Sectors involved: Agriculture, e-commerce, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals.

Scope of the provisional agreement

The negotiations, ongoing since March, finalized terms of reference in April 2025. The provisional agreement sets a tariff base below 20%, down from Trump’s initial 26% proposal. India offered to eliminate tariffs on 60% of product lines and grant preferential access to 90% of U.S. imports, including fruits, auto parts, and medical equipment.

The deal allows continued talks to address non-tariff barriers, such as agricultural and pharmaceutical regulations. India resists opening its market to genetically modified crops, citing risks to its 140 million farmers, while the U.S. pushes for greater access to agricultural products and digital data.

The first phase covers goods and services, with regular virtual meetings between teams in New Delhi and Washington. India’s Commerce Ministry keeps details confidential but confirmed the goal of completing the initial phase by October.

Trump’s tariff policy

Trump’s tariff strategy, launched in April 2025, imposed rates of 10% to 50% on over 180 countries, with specific tariffs like 20% for Vietnam and the Philippines and 40% for Laos and Myanmar. India, initially facing 26%, seeks better terms than Vietnam’s 20%. The United Kingdom secured a 10% tariff deal.

The tariff suspension, extended until August 1, provides a window for negotiations. Trump set a global minimum tariff of 10%, with non-compliant countries facing 15% to 20% rates. India, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s February visit, avoids retaliatory measures to secure a favorable deal.

Key sectors in the talks

The agreement spans 19 categories, including agriculture, e-commerce, data storage, and critical minerals. India proposed lowering tariffs on U.S. cranberries, blueberries, pecans, and alfalfa feed, while seeking exemptions for mangoes, grapes, and pomegranates, plus restored tax benefits for 2,000 products, revoked in 2019.

Tensions persist over genetically modified crops, opposed by India to protect farmers, and pharmaceutical regulations, where the U.S. seeks faster generic drug approvals. The jewelry sector, exporting $32 billion to the U.S., faces losses if tariffs exceed 20%.

U.S.-India trade dynamics

Bilateral trade reached $129 billion in 2024, with India holding a $45.7 billion surplus. The U.S. imports Indian textiles, jewelry, and pharmaceuticals, while exporting technology, aircraft, and agricultural goods. Trump aims to reduce the trade gap by opening India’s market, particularly in strategic sectors.

India proposed narrowing the tariff gap from 13% to under 4%, offering access to 90% of U.S. products. The offer, made in May, includes zero tariffs on 60% of import lines, such as auto parts and medical equipment. Goyal’s delegation, set to visit Washington on July 16, will refine these terms.

• Trade volume: $129 billion in 2024, with $45.7 billion Indian surplus.
• India’s offer: Zero tariffs on 60% of lines, access to 90% of U.S. goods.
• Key Indian exports: Textiles, jewelry, pharmaceuticals, worth $32 billion.
• Next steps: Indian delegation in Washington from July 16.

BRICS-related tensions

India’s role in BRICS sparked friction, with Trump threatening additional tariffs due to its alignment with China and Russia. Social media posts indicate New Delhi prioritizes the U.S. deal to avoid sanctions, distancing itself from BRICS. The White House views India as a key Indo-Pacific ally, as stated by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

China criticized nations prioritizing U.S. deals, but India has not signaled retaliation. Modi’s February 2025 visit to Washington strengthened defense and technology ties, supporting the trade talks.

Other countries’ negotiations

Vietnam secured a 20% tariff deal, granting full market access but seeking reductions. The UK maintains a 10% tariff, with cuts on whiskey and meat exports. Fifteen other nations, including Japan and South Korea, are in talks, facing hurdles like South Korea’s June election.

China, with tariffs reduced from 145% to 30% for 90 days, lacks a final agreement. The European Union plans retaliatory tariffs, while Brazil faces 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, with no bilateral deal progress.

Brazil’s trade position

Brazil, notified on July 7 of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, exported $8 billion to the U.S. in 2024. President Lula signaled potential reciprocity by August 1 if tariffs persist. Brazil’s 10% base tariff leaves it less pressured than India, but the lack of a deal may curb exports.

India’s industrial stakes

India’s jewelry industry, employing 5 million workers, exports $32 billion to the U.S. and risks losses with high tariffs. The pharmaceutical sector, with $25 billion in exports, seeks exemptions, while IT negotiates digital data access. India protects its 140 million farmers by resisting genetically modified crops, balancing trade concessions.

Next steps in the talks

Goyal’s delegation will meet U.S. officials in Washington on July 16 to advance the agreement. Virtual meetings will continue, targeting a first-phase deal by October. The broader pact will cover services, technology, and defense.

The U.S. Commerce Department and India’s Commerce Ministry oversee the talks, with White House supervision. India aims to avoid a formal tariff demand letter, maintaining open dialogue. Brazil’s Anfavea monitors the deal, but no timeline exists for its own negotiations.